U.S. Economy: Canary in a Coal Mine?
Maybe we should pay attention to the recent moratoriums on data centers. More than $130B in projects are currently in some form of stall mode due to state or local moratoriums or community pushbacks. This is an interesting (and scary) dynamic because data show that data center construction and the indirect spending associated with it may have accounted for 40-50% of GDP growth in 2025 and early 2026.
Estimates suggest that data center construction activity and the equipment and spending that accompany it could contribute as much as 1 full percentage point to GDP growth. So, if GDP was growing at 2% in a given period of time, data centers could account for 50% of that growth.
As an example of how this might work, consider the latest model data released for August below. It shows computer and electronic equipment production flatlining for the rest of the year and even into 2027.
The Seven Trillion-Dollar Question
The latest Federal data on inventory levels cover the second quarter, which ended in June. Remember that in Q2, we were concerned because the official GDP data showed that import activity was one of the larger factors affecting GDP. If recent data is accurate, we think we are still in an understocked situation and that more scrambling is underway than originally expected.
According to data through the end of Q2, despite inventory-building activity, 82.8% of the marketplace is lighter than its 10-year average before the pandemic and relative to November 2019 (which should have been heavier going into the peak season).
How this plays out in the marketplace remains to be seen.
Read more about how this, along with financial developments and other global issues, could affect your supply chain.
