U.S. Economy – Home Builders are Not “Feeling It”
The latest NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) reading for home builder sentiment came in weaker than expected. The national reading came in at 36 points, down from an adjusted 37 last month and three points down from December levels.
This was down across the board, namely down 14.3% Y/Y and 2.7% M/M.
Rates remain too high, and construction costs keep many families from leaving their current homes for more expensive, smaller ones.
Without being relocated or another family reason to move, it makes no sense right now. And for the majority of home buyers, that’s why they are staying put, and that’s why the Wells Fargo/NAHB index isn’t moving.
U.S. Supply Chain – Transportation
The DAT Trendlines data on load-to-truck ratios (LTR) show them much higher than levels over the past two years. The current LTR was running at 9.3 loads for every available truck, up sharply from 4.73 last year and 2.82 in 2024.
The chart below graphically shows the difference between the two.
Even the index’s direction is running contrary to the seasonal trend.
Warning signs ahead?
