By Alex Stark

Welcome back and happy New Year. Hopefully, your holidays were filled with joy spent with loved ones, and you were able to recharge your batteries.

Employment numbers for December were just released, and 2025 will end with the fewest new hires since the pandemic. Unemployment is at 4.4%.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal:

Payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025, averaging 49,000 new jobs a month. December’s job growth was concentrated in the healthcare and leisure and hospitality sectors. The retail sector cut jobs, as did transportation and warehousing.

Uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, geopolitical unrest, and AI-impacts will linger in 2026 as the labor market struggles. All this, while the economy keeps chugging along. Save for a bumpy 1st quarter in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years.

The growth of the economy seems at odds with numbers from U.S. manufacturing. According to the ISM (Institute for Supply Management), the industry decreased to its lowest point in 2025.

ISM’s index registered 47.9% in December, down 0.3 percentage points compared with November. A PMI index below 50% shows an industry in contraction.

Amid this churn, robust strategies can mitigate supply chain risks. Companies that will succeed in 2026 will understand the trends so that they can respond quickly and effectively to counteract any turbulence.

  1. Supply chain fragmentation and diversification caused by geopolitical forces. Planning should focus on tariffs, supplier relationships, and ongoing unrest worldwide.
  2. Economic uncertainty will test supply chains in 2026. Potentially decreased consumer spending, a sluggish U.S. housing market, and labor’s status of “low hire, low fire” will have repercussions.
  3. Cost optimization is key. Being resilient means having a detailed eye on spending to keep costs in line.
  4. AI reset. The hype around the technology will settle into workable practices. Companies will get better at determining how best to use the tools for optimal performance.
  5. Workforce challenges will impact supply chain organizations. Throughout all levels of the enterprise, recruiting for labor and knowledge will be essential. Labor availability remains a top priority as the older generation retires, supply networks expand, and new skills are required to operate sophisticated systems. Companies that will win will be able to react to the summary statement: “Labor is no longer a stable input.”

Handwringing about AI and the threat of dupes will only become more difficult to detect as technology improves. Maybe Finland is on to something. Since the 1990s, media literacy has been a part of the school curriculum. Skills are so ingrained in students that the country consistently ranks among the most media-savvy on researchers’ lists.

“We think that having good media literacy skills is a very big civic skill,” Kiia Hakkala, a pedagogical specialist for the City of Helsinki, told The Associated Press. “It’s very important to the nation’s safety and to the safety of our democracy.”

Bonus: Quiz Time…Which of the following best describes the current U.S. economy?

  1. A booming expansion, as long as you own assets and earn a high income
  2. A recession, according to vibes, most people you know, and your bank balance
  3. An economy where GDP is up, stocks are soaring, and half the country feels poorer anyway
  4. All of the above

Answer: All of the above. By traditional measures, the U.S. economy is growing, and markets are near record highs. At the same time, polling indicates that nearly 50% of Americans believe their financial security is deteriorating, and a majority believe the country is in a recession. The disconnect reflects a K-shaped economy.

What’s a K-shaped economy? Here’s a short video courtesy of CNN.

In this economic climate, remember that it costs nothing to be kind.